El Nino Predictions Exceed 90% for 2015/16

Westerly trade wins and warming tropical water in the Pacific are two key ingredients for El Nino to occur. 

 
A series of westerly wind bursts and warming ocean temperatures have meteorologists ramping up El Nino forecasts to over 90%. This could mean a wet and snowy winter for the West Coast, which would be welcome in California to relieve drought conditions and return missing snow.

Ski resorts buried in snow is an upside to a good El Nino. Photo: Mammoth Mountain

 

Typically occurring every 3-7 years, El Nino brings wild weather, heavy precipitation and extreme conditions that affect different parts of the globe. The largest El Nino event in recent memory took place during 1997-1998 — a year of extreme snowfall on the West Coast that also caused pounding surf. Mt. Baker, Washington broke the global snowfall record with over 1,100 inches of snow.

Michelle L’Heureux, a climate forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in Maryland wrote in her Climate.gov blog post,

“Right now we slightly favor a strong El Niño because we are seeing more bursts and we are further along in the year…This causes us to be more confident in the staying power of this El Niño.”

For those looking to predict to what degree a snowy winter might be on the horizon, L’Heureux offered supportive statistics:

“This can be a huge advantage to those who want to hedge bets or plan for certain outcomes. The fact that our probabilities are [greater than] 90% means that folks can start making those bets and preparing for potential impacts.”

Check out this detailed article on Mashable for the full breakdown and get ready to wax your skis.